The Domino Effect: Understanding Cascading Environmental Crises

Introduction

To truly grasp the environmental challenges facing the United States, we must look beyond single issues. Instead, we need to see how they are connected. The biggest threats today are not isolated events but “cascading crises” [1, 2]. This is where one initial problem triggers a chain reaction of consequences. As a result, these feedback loops increase the overall risk and create systemic failures that are too big for our usual ways of handling things.

Case Study: The Wildfire-Drought-Water-Health Connection

The American West provides a clear and powerful example of this domino effect in action. This case study shows how a single climate driver can start a sequence of damaging events that affect the environment, the economy, and public health.

The First Domino: A Changing Climate

The process begins with the well-known effects of climate change in the Western U.S. These primary climate drivers include rising temperatures and droughts that are more frequent, longer, and more intense. Consequently, these conditions create huge landscapes of dry vegetation, which dramatically increases the risk of wildfires [3].

The Chain Reaction: From Fire to Water

The initial climate driver leads to the first major impact: a change in the ecosystem. The West is now seeing a longer wildfire season. Furthermore, the fires that occur are bigger, more intense, and more frequent. In fact, all ten of the largest fire years on record in the U.S. have happened since 2004 [3].

These megafires then cause a second-order impact: a water crisis. For instance, high-intensity fires burn away the vegetation that normally holds soil in place. They can even bake the soil until it repels water. When the first heavy rains arrive after a fire, the water doesn’t soak in. Instead, it rushes off the land at high speed. This runoff carries with it huge amounts of ash, sediment, heavy metals, and other toxins [4]. This toxic mix flows directly into the rivers and reservoirs that supply drinking water for millions of people. As a result, cities like Fort Collins and Greeley, Colorado, have been forced to shut down their main water sources for long periods after major fires. They then have to scramble to find other, often more expensive, water sources [5].

The Final Impacts: Costs and Health

The water contamination, in turn, triggers a cascade of economic costs. Water utilities must spend millions of dollars on special treatments to make the water safe. In some cases, the water cannot be treated at all. Reservoirs also begin to fill with fire-related sediment, which reduces their storage capacity and requires expensive dredging operations. For example, Denver Water spent more than $10 million to remove sediment from just two of its reservoirs after the Hayman Fire [5]. This puts an extra strain on the nation’s water infrastructure, which is already aging and needs major investment.

Ultimately, these cascading impacts harm the public’s health. The wildfire smoke itself is a major health hazard. It can blanket communities hundreds of miles away. Breathing in the fine particles from smoke is linked to a spike in emergency room visits for breathing and heart problems, including a higher risk of heart attacks and strokes [6]. In addition, new research links wildfire smoke exposure to serious mental health effects, including an increase in suicide rates [7]. This is on top of the health risks from drinking water that may be contaminated with toxins from the fire.

A Failure of Governance

The existence of these cascading crises reveals a deep weakness in our system of government. Environmental management in the U.S. has traditionally been organized into separate silos. For example, the Forest Service manages forests, a state agency manages water rights, and the EPA sets air and water quality standards. This structure is not equipped to handle problems that cross agency and ecological boundaries [2]. In the wildfire example, a fire on federal land creates a water crisis for a city that has to follow EPA standards. So, who is responsible for solving the whole problem? The issue falls into the cracks between these agencies. Consequently, the response is often reactive, piecemeal, and much more expensive than proactive prevention would have been.

Case Study: The Wildfire-Drought-Water-Health Nexus

The American West provides a stark case study of the domino effect, where a single climate driver initiates a sequence of devastating environmental, economic, and public health consequences.

Domino 1: The Climate Driver

Drought & Rising Temperatures

The process begins with the well-documented effects of climate change: more frequent, prolonged, and intense droughts create vast landscapes of tinder-dry vegetation, dramatically increasing wildfire risk.

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Domino 2: Ecosystems on the Brink

Increase in Catastrophic Fires

The result is a longer, more severe wildfire season. All ten of the largest-acreage fire years on record in the U.S. have occurred since 2004, demonstrating a clear shift in fire behavior.

Domino 3: A Water Crisis

Contaminated Rivers & Reservoirs

After a fire, heavy rains wash ash, sediment, and heavy metals from the burned landscape directly into drinking water supplies, forcing cities to shut down intakes and find alternative sources.

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Domino 4: Economic Strain

Massive Cleanup Costs

Water utilities must spend millions on advanced treatment and dredging. Denver Water, for example, spent over $10 million to remove sediment from just two reservoirs after a single major fire.

Domino 5: Public Health Emergency

Physical & Mental Health Impacts

Wildfire smoke is linked to surges in emergency room visits for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. Emerging research also links smoke exposure to severe mental health impacts, including increased suicide rates.

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Conclusion

It is almost always more cost-effective to invest in keeping forests healthy to prevent catastrophic fires than it is to pay for water treatment and dredging after the fact. Therefore, the reality of cascading crises points to a critical need for a new model of environmental governance. We need a model based on integrated, systems-level management that is organized around logical ecological units, like watersheds, rather than arbitrary bureaucratic lines. Without such innovation in how we govern, the United States will remain trapped in a costly and increasingly dangerous cycle of reacting to one crisis after another.

Works Cited

[1] Cascading Climate Impacts – American Planning Association, https://planning.org/foresight/trend/9310269/

[2] Climate change risk assessment 2021 | 04 Cascading systemic risks – Chatham House, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/climate-change-risk-assessment-2021/04-cascading-systemic-risks

[3] Climate Change Indicators: Wildfires | US EPA, https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-wildfires

[4] How Do Wildfires Impact Water Quality? – NC State College of Natural Resources, https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2025/01/how-do-wildfires-impact-water-quality/

[5] The Los Angeles fires and America’s overwhelmed water infrastructure, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-los-angeles-fires-and-americas-overwhelmed-water-infrastructure/

[6] How exposure to wildfire smoke impacts human health now, soon, and later, https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/how-exposure-to-wildfire-smoke-impacts-human-health-now-soon-and-later/

[7] Air pollution and suicide in rural and urban America: Evidence from wildfire smoke – PNAS, https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2221621120

The Domino Effect: Understanding Cascading Environmental Crises

Case Study: The Wildfire-Drought-Water-Health Nexus

Drought & Rising Temperatures

Increase in Catastrophic Fires

Contaminated Rivers & Reservoirs

Massive Cleanup Costs

Physical & Mental Health Impacts

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